IATA: Global passenger demand rebounded in October


By Emmie Abadilla | Manila Bulletin

Global passenger traffic rebounded strongly in October after hurricane-related disruptions in the preceding month.

“Recent severe weather in the Americas only had a temporary impact on the healthy travel demand we have seen this year,” confirmed International Air Transport Association (IATA) Director General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac, “We remain on course for another year of above-trend growth.”

“Demand for air travel remains strong as we head into the holiday travel season and signs point to the broad-based economic upturn continuing into 2018, which is good news,” he added.

Worldwide passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), rose 7.3% in October versus the same period last year, according to IATA’s latest  data.

Airlines in all regions recorded growth. Total capacity climbed 6%, and load factor increased 1.percentage point to 80, which was a record for the month.

Asia-Pacific airlines led all regions with traffic growth of 10.3% compared to the year-ago period, which was up from an 8.7% rise in September. Capacity climbed 8.4% and load factor rose 1.3 percentage points to 78.0%.

Seasonally-adjusted passenger volumes are rising at an annualized rate of 8-9%, supported by the solid regional economic backdrop and strong growth in the number of connections.

Middle East carriers experienced a 6.9% rise in demand in October, improved from 3.9% in September. Capacity increased 5.3%, and load factor climbed 1.0 percentage point to 69.6%.

As in Europe, the upward trend in RPKs has slowed. Demand to and from North America fell in year-on-year terms for the seventh consecutive month in September  and it remains the only international market not to have grown in annual terms this year.

Traffic has been heavily affected by the now-lifted ban on portable electronic devices, as well as from the proposed travel bans to the US.

North American airlines’ traffic climbed 3.7% in October compared to the year-ago period, lowest among the regions but an improvement compared to the hurricane-affected 3% growth in September.

Capacity rose 5.2% and load factor dropped 1.1 percentage points to 79.2%. North America was one of just two regions to post a load factor decline. Inbound travel to the US seems to  be deterred by the additional security measures now involved with travelling to that country.

Latin American airlines had an 8.7% increase in traffic in October, which was a slowdown from September growth of 10.7%, but still the second strongest percentage growth among regions.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, however, volumes are slightly below where they were three months ago. This may indicate spillover from the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Maria. Capacity climbed 9.1%, and load factor slipped 0.3 percentage points to 82.6%.

European carriers’ October demand climbed 6.2% over October, 2016, which was a slowdown compared to the 7.2% year-over-year growth recorded for September.

Capacity increased 4.5% and load factor rose 1.3 percentage points to 84.9%, highest among regions. While economic conditions have shown strong improvement over the past year or so, the upward trend in seasonally-adjusted traffic has slowed considerably since May.

This reflects the nature of international travel in the region, which is predominantly short-haul and  highly-price sensitive.

African airlines’ traffic grew 7.5% year-on-year in October, up from 3.6% in September.

Conditions in the region’s two largest economies — Nigeria and South Africa, are still diverging, with business confidence levels in Nigeria near a three-year high, while confidence levels in South Africa are consistent with falling economic activity.

Capacity rose 3.4%, and load factor jumped 2.7 percentage points to 70.9%.

On the other hand, domestic demand climbed 7.2% in October  while capacity rose 6.6%. India and China continued to lead all markets, with double-digit growth rates.

Brazil’s domestic market climbed 7.7% year-on-year in October, which was a 27-month high as the economy slowly continues to recover from the deep recession of recent years.

Russia’s domestic traffic rose was 6.1% in October, the slowest pace in a year.